Data-Driven Climate Risk Adaptation for Infrastructure
As climate change accelerates, Canadian municipalities face a rising tide of unpredictable and compounding risks to municipal infrastructure systems. The challenge is clear: how can communities adapt their infrastructure before the damage is done?
Data-driven climate risk adaptation may be part of the solution. It offers a systematic approach using evidence to anticipate and reduce climate impacts. With the right data and methods, municipalities can move from responding to disasters to planning for resilience.
Understanding Infrastructure Vulnerability Through Data
Effective climate adaptation starts with understanding which infrastructure is most at risk, under what conditions, and with what consequences. This requires:
Inventory data: What assets are in scope, and what is their age, condition, and function?
Climate projections: How are temperature, precipitation, and extreme weather expected to change?
Service thresholds: What stressors or events (e.g., flooding, overheating) could cause service disruption or damage to these assets?
Consequence analysis: What would failure mean—for safety, service levels, costs, or the environment?
These elements come together in structured frameworks like the PIEVC Protocol, Canada’s leading method for assessing climate risk to public infrastructure.
A Structured, Evidence-Based Approach
The Public Infrastructure Engineering Vulnerability Committee (PIEVC) Protocol was developed by Engineers Canada to provide a step-by-step method to evaluate how climate change may impact specific infrastructure systems. The PIEVC offers a systematic way to use data to identify climate vulnerabilities:
Define the project scope
Identify the infrastructure system, timeframe, and climate parameters to be analyzed.Collect infrastructure and data
Infrastructure data: Asset inventory, design specifications, operating conditions.
Climate data: Historical observations and future projections (e.g., intensity of rainfall, freeze-thaw frequency).
Screen climate-infrastructure interactions
The Protocol offers a matrix to identify which climate parameters may impact which components (e.g., storm intensity affecting culvert capacity).Assess vulnerability and risk
Each interaction is scored for probability and severity, allowing prioritization of the highest risks.Develop adaptation strategies
Identify operational, maintenance, or capital interventions to reduce high-risk vulnerabilities—such as upsizing culverts, revising maintenance schedules, or relocating critical assets.
The PIEVC Protocol has been applied across Canada—from assessing wastewater plants in the Northwest Territories to evaluating roadways in Nova Scotia and stormwater systems in Southern Ontario.
Other Data-Driven Adaptation Tools
While PIEVC is a foundational Canadian method, other frameworks and technologies are complementing data-driven adaptation:
GIS Overlays in Vancouver
Vancouver uses detailed asset data and GIS overlays of climate hazard zones (e.g., sea level rise areas) to guide infrastructure upgrades. Real-time rainfall and tide gauges support ongoing monitoring.
Fuel Load Modeling in Logan Lake
Proactive use of satellite data and fuel load modeling helped the town implement strategic firebreaks and vegetation thinning—saving the community from the 2021 Tremont Creek wildfire.
Historical Flood Data and Modeling in Toronto
By analyzing rainfall patterns, sewer flow data, and flood event history, Toronto prioritized high-risk neighborhoods for storm sewer upgrades and green infrastructure retrofits.
Intact Centre Risk Scorecards
The Intact Centre on Climate Adaptation initiative uses checklists and data to assess community preparedness for flood, wildfire, and heat risks—turning qualitative assessments into actionable planning tools.
Turning Data Into Resilience
Data alone won’t protect communities—but used wisely, it becomes the foundation for smart investment, early intervention, and climate-resilient infrastructure.
Municipalities that invest in climate risk assessments today are making a down payment on safer, more sustainable communities tomorrow. Whether using formal methods like PIEVC or deploying local data, GIS and modeling tools, the key is to use what you know to plan for what’s coming.